Bega Valley Motors Rally news

[PeterO]

Originally Posted by Bede

Peter,

Mark Sessions, on your list as 'should have started more than 8 places lower' than his seeding, was 3rd OR on the first stage and 3rd OR on the second stage. On stage three he got a flat tyre and his turbo seal failed (45th OR).

Information which should go to "your" seeding person.

Originally Posted by Bede

So again, it highlights that even just 'ignoring very slow times' doesn't always capture the true picture, that seeding is just a guide, and highlights how any individual performs on that day may vary significantly from their seeding or their usual speed.

The seeding list is more than a guide. It is the list used to establish the starting order - according to the event Supp Regs at Bega, and also in the Standing Regulations of the Victorian Rally Championship.
Every VRC competitor knows that, and none of them complains when a start order is released. They do make sure the seeder is aware of problems on an event - though most times the statistics takes out the time. They also
drop a quiet email to the Series CRO [when they have a new, very different car] who then "goes in to bat for them" at the pre-event Stewards meeting where the final Start Order is approved.

Interesting to note that despite the moving up and down the start order suggested by me after analysing this one event, none of the Victorian competitors changed their position on the Victorian seeding list relative to any other competitor in this event, as the seeding is averaged over the last 10 events for each competitor. They did however overtake people on the seeding list who did NOT take part at Bega.

Peter

[afifield]

10 events? So people like Clinton Croker would still be clawing his way up the list from when he had the 180B?

Oh, and no need for Mark to let me know about his cr@p stage time, the calculation will drop that stage without me interfering.


Not trying to get into a p***ing contest. I'm sure there are merits in both methods. I just don't think it's constructive to point out that the start order (which was not solely determined on the VIC seeding list as you suggested) at Bega wasn't to your liking following after-event analysis.

Considering the number of series and states involved, I reckon they did a pretty good job, and they listened to reasoned/justified arguments where needed.

[MattHarriott]

Originally Posted by afifield

Oh, and no need for Mark to let me know about his cr@p stage time, the calculation will drop that stage without me interfering.

So how could it then be seen that we should of started 8 cars further back?? Im just curious to know how someone can duduct from one event, if our worst time is dropped, how two 3rd OR times would mean we should have started in the teens.....

Mark and I had no complaints about our seeding, we enjoyed the poistion the we held (all beit for only 2.8stages). Looking forward to the rebulit engine and the mid season break (chance to build up the rally fund again...)

[DaveTrees]

Originally Posted by MattHarriott

Im just curious to know how someone can duduct from one event, if our worst time is dropped, how two 3rd OR times would mean we should have started in the teens

I don't think Peter is doing that, Matt - neither is he suggesting that the seedings "weren't to his liking" - merely pointing out what the stats from one event might indicate. He isn't saying people were necessarily wrongly seeded. How much faster/slower you were than the average time on each stage is the important thing - not your overall stage position (it's all about mean times & standard deviations).

10 events? So people like Clinton Croker would still be clawing his way up the list from when he had the 180B?

Not necessarily. It doesn't mean you have to have done 10 events to get a seeding - only that it uses the stage times from your last 10 VRC rounds for the calculations. For example, if you have only done 5 VRCs it uses all of them. If you have done 12, it drops the oldest 2. If someone changes cars & starts performing significantly better, they move up the seeding list pretty rapidly in my experience (and there is always scope to drop "irrelevant" rounds once someone has done a few events in a new car.)

The advantage (to my mind) of using a larger number of events is that if a competitor has an "off day", or conversely has a "blinder" where they punch well above their weight, it has less impact on their seeding ..... the peaks & troughs in performance get smoothed out somewhat. The more events used, the better the picture of an individual's typical speed relative to others.

Note that only VRC rounds are used in our system, because they are basically the only Special Stage events run in Victoria. 10 events is roughly 2 seasons, for most people

The Vic & NSW systems are just different ways of skinning the same cat ... both would have their pros & cons. (It would be an interesting academic excercise to recalculate both lists using the other state's system .... but wouldn't really achieve much in practical terms)

Considering the number of series and states involved, I reckon they did a pretty good job, and they listened to reasoned/justified arguments where needed.

Absolutely ! In fact a one-event variation for an individual of 6-8 spots in a field of 70-something cars is sod all in seeding terms.

[TKM]

Is there actually any offical results yet? I'd really like to see some for ALL cars at the end of the short event so I can do the PCD ACT Series pointscore.

I say ALL, as the organisers seem to be splitting the results into long and short and not indicating where those running the long event where placed at the end of the short event. Not all PCD ACT series registered competitors completed the short event only, some continued on and I need to know where they were placed come the end of the short event.

If that's not possible, then a set of results that indicates the stage times for every competitor so I can work it out for myself would be much appreciated.

[Dave Kelly]

Originally Posted by TKM

Is there actually any offical results yet? I'd really like to see some for ALL cars at the end of the short event so I can do the PCD ACT Series pointscore.

I say ALL, as the organisers seem to be splitting the results into long and short and not indicating where those running the long event where placed at the end of the short event. Not all PCD ACT series registered competitors completed the short event only, some continued on and I need to know where they were placed come the end of the short event.

If that's not possible, then a set of results that indicates the stage times for every competitor so I can work it out for myself would be much appreciated.

Mark,

A link to results was posted in the http://www.bmsc.com.au/forums/showpost.php?p=212142&postcount=80 forum yesterday.

They are however split into long and short events, however I am sure if you were to politely enquire of the event scorer, Garry Hodgskiss (whose contact details are available within the published results) he would possibly be able to provide you with the information in a format more suitable to your needs (given his scoring program is really quite sophisticated plus even more importantly Garry is one of natures true gentleman and a fantastic and tireless servant for our sport here in Victoria).

Apologies if none of that is good enough for your needs, but as I said a polite enquiry to Garry will, I feel sure, bear some fruit?

Kindest regards,

David

[PeterO]

Originally Posted by afifield

Not trying to get into a p***ing contest. I'm sure there are merits in both methods. I just don't think it's constructive to point out that the start order (which was not solely determined on the VIC seeding list as you suggested) at Bega wasn't to your liking following after-event analysis.

Not saying I didn't like the start order - just reporting what happened when everyones stage times were put through the statictical analysis we use to create the Victorian List.
I suspect you would get similar set of "predictions" if you put everyones times through the speed comparision method used in NSW/ACT.
I was more pointing out how the results of a single event - let alone a single stage - can often give a quite misleading indication of where a driver should be seeded.
Peter

[AndrewO]

Hi all,

Provisional results from Bega are now available. There are four files to download, see below for the links.

Competitors who supplied an email address should have received these, plus a link to the post-event survey via email yesterday morning. Those competitors who requested printed copies via post, they are now with Australia Post awaiting delivery.

File 1 :- http://www.vicrallychampionship.com....over_Sheet.pdf
File 2 :- http://www.vicrallychampionship.com....mpionships.pdf
File 3 :- http://www.vicrallychampionship.com...._Long_Prov.pdf
File 4 :- http://www.vicrallychampionship.com....Short_Prov.pdf

Cheers,
Andrew Ormesher